Historic Gold Price Surge to $4000 an Ounce Expected by 2026 Amid Recession Fears

Amid the ongoing challenges facing global markets and rising concerns about a potential economic recession, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven. In a move that reflects growing confidence in the future of the precious metal, Goldman Sachs and UBS have both predicted a historic surge in gold prices, possibly reaching $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by unprecedented economic and investment factors.

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Lina Thomas, now foresee gold reaching $3700 per ounce by the end of this year, with the potential for prices to hit $4000 by mid-2026. Meanwhile, UBS strategist Joni Teves has projected $3500 per ounce by December 2025, according to separate notes from the two institutions.

These forecasts come after gold surged by 6.6% last week, hitting a new record above $3245 per ounce on Monday. Both banks revised their previous forecasts in March, signaling a strong bullish consensus on the precious metal amidst the uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which have disrupted global markets. According to Bloomberg News, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that government purchases of gold are expected to average around 80 tons per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tons, reinforcing their long-term recommendation to buy gold.

They also stated that the heightened risk of a recession is likely to increase flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Goldman Sachs economists now estimate a 45% chance of a recession, and if this scenario materializes, ETF flows could accelerate further, pushing gold prices to $3880 per ounce by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, UBS expects strong demand for gold from multiple market segments, including central banks, long-term asset managers, macro funds, private wealth, and individual investors, driven by geopolitical and economic shifts that enhance the need for safe-haven assets.

However, UBS’s Teves highlighted that there is still room for further exposure to gold, as market positions have not yet reached overcrowded levels. She pointed out that gold positions relative to total fund assets may surpass the levels reached in 2020, though they have not yet reached the peak seen in 2012-2013. The base of gold investors has expanded since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg News.